The U.S.-China trade war barrels on towards day 100, with no end in sight. Two big updates today:
First, Donald Trump reiterated his threat to impose tariffs on all Chinese imports.
- He told reporters in the Oval Office that “China wants to make a deal, and I say they’re not ready yet…we’ve canceled a couple of meetings because I say they’re not ready to make a deal,” Reuters reports.
- “When asked whether he was ready to levy new taxes in case of retaliation from China, Trump said, ‘sure, absolutely,’” Reuters notes.
- Trump then “added that the current U.S. trade imbalance with China means ‘they’ve already retaliated.’”
Second, the two sides are at an impasse when it comes to scheduling additional negotiations.
- Last week, the Wall Street Journal suggested (paywall) that it was possible the two sides would talk at the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires at the end of November.
- But “US officials have warned China that Donald Trump will not engage in trade talks with Xi Jinping at next month’s G20 summit if Beijing does not produce a detailed list of concessions,” the Financial Times reports (paywall).
- “The Chinese, however, say they have such a list but would not present it without some guarantee of it being received in a stable political climate in Washington, including a point person with a mandate to negotiate on behalf of the Trump administration.”
- A “stable political climate in Washington” is the opposite of what the rest of 2018 is heading towards, and “a point person” for U.S.-China trade is one thing that the Trump administration has refused to identify, despite many months of Chinese complaints.
Other trade war news and analysis:
- International Monetary Fund forecasts 2019
US trade war would make world ‘poorer and more dangerous’ / BBC
“Global economic growth is now expected to reach 3.7% in 2018 and 2019, down from the IMF’s previous prediction of 3.9% in July.”
IMF downgrades global growth outlook, places responsibility on US-China trade tensions / Deutsche Welle
Trade war escalation will hit China harder than the US, IMF says / SCMP
- Liquefied petroleum gas
China slashes U.S. LPG imports amid trade war / Reuters
“China has choked back on imports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the United States, traders and analysts said, turning to the Middle East for extra supplies amid the two countries’ trade dispute.”
- Chinese perspective
“Utterly messed up my life”: What Chinese people really think of the trade war / Quartz
- Currency concerns
China promises not to weaken yuan, criticizes US concern / AP via Washington Post
IMF chief economist says he’s not concerned about China’s ability to defend the yuan / CNBC
- Rhetoric from Beijing
US Tariffs Won’t Force China to Back Down, Trade Minister Says / Bloomberg (porous paywall)
China’s Commerce Minister Discusses US Trade Dispute: Full Text / Bloomberg (porous paywall)
- Chinese economy
Beijing is finally accepting lower growth as the trade war hits, says Barclays economist / CNBC
Alternative China PMI Gauge Says Business `Has Never Been Worse’ / Bloomberg (porous paywall)
British banks could benefit from US-China trade war: Barclays chairman / CNBC
- China’s debt holdings
The Unknowable Fallout of China’s Trade War Nuclear Option / NYT (porous paywall)
“China holds more than a trillion dollars in United States debt, and an escalating trade war could tempt it to wield that debt in a way that has long been unthinkable.”
Previously in SupChina’s trade war coverage: