Techno-trade war update: The U.S. is hurting while China’s doing fine

Domestic News

Yesterday, day 412 of the U.S.-China techno trade war, Donald Trump chose to dial up the megalomania by declaring himself the “Chosen One” who has to “take China on,” regardless of pain to the U.S. in the short term.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is hurting: The tariffs could “cost American households $1,000 per year, JPMorgan says,” per CNBC; American farmers are saying that Trump “took away all of our markets,” according to Yahoo Finance; and Politico and SCMP report that Donald Trump’s trade war tariffs on China failing to bring jobs and manufacturing back to the U.S.

Even as China’s not hurting: “China’s growth began to slow long before the trade war started,” writes Nicholas Lardy of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, as he also points out that “the pace of the slowdown has moderated since the initial imposition of tariffs by the United States in July 2018” (emphasis added).

Thailand is loving the effects of tariffs: “At least 10 firms are in the process of relocating some production to Thailand from China, according to the National Economic & Social Development Council,” Bloomberg reports. “More than a dozen others could potentially choose Thailand, it said in a statement.”

Vietnam, though, might be unprepared: “The specialized supply chains that made China a production powerhouse for smartphones and aluminum ladders and vacuum cleaners and dining tables are nowhere near as developed in Vietnam,” the Wall Street Journal says.

More news and analysis:

“New details about the U.S. sanctions-busting case against Huawei Technologies Co. emerged in court filings in Canada, including about the Chinese telecom giant’s alleged dealings in Iran, Syria and Sudan,” the Wall Street Journal reports. The SCMP adds that a Canadian judge also “ordered the release of exhibits and documents filed by Meng Wanzhou’s lawyers as part of her extradition case, including video that shows border officers searching the Huawei executive’s bags at Vancouver International Airport on December 1, the day of her arrest.”

U.S. arms sales to Taiwan: China said that it “levy sanctions against U.S. companies linked to a planned $8 billion sale of advanced F-16V fighter jets to Taiwan,” according to ABC.

Made in China 2025: A research report that compares Chinese and American media coverage of the industrial initiative was published by Eliot Chen in MacroPolo. The visualized data shows the sudden drop-off of coverage in China after May 17, 2018, just as western media piled on and the trade war heated up.

Data on U.S.-China investment: The Rhodium Group and the National Committee on U.S.-China relations have published a paper cross-border cash flows, titled, Sidelined: U.S.-China Investment in 1H 2019. See also interactive data at The US-China Investment Hub.