GDP targets cut down in most provinces - SupChina
Free

We're a new type of news publication

China news you won't read elsewhere.

Weekly Newsletter

Get a roundup of the most important and interesting stories coming out of China.

Podcasts

Sinica, TechBuzz China, and our 6 other shows are the undisputed champs of China podcasts. Listen now.

Feature Articles

Interactive, web-based deep dives into the real China.

Premium

Join the thousands of executives, diplomats, and journalists that rely on SupChina for daily analysis of the full China story.

Daily Newsletter

All the news, every day. Premium analysis directly from our Editor-in-Chief Jeremy Goldkorn.

24/7 Slack Community

Have China-related questions and want answers? Our Slack community is a place to learn, network, and opine.

Free Live Events & More

Monthly live conference calls with leading experts, free entry to SupChina live events in cities around the world, and more.

"A jewel in the crown of China reporting. I go to it, look for it daily. Why? It adds so much insight into the real China. Essential news, culture, color. I find SupChina superior."
— Max Baucus, former U.S. Ambassador to China

Free

We're a new type of news publication

China news you won't read elsewhere.

Weekly Newsletter

Get a roundup of the most important and interesting stories coming out of China.

Podcasts

Sinica, TechBuzz China, and our 6 other shows are the undisputed champs of China podcasts. Listen now.

Feature Articles

Interactive, web-based deep dives into the real China.

OR… for more in-depth analysis and an online community of China-focused professionals:

Learn About Premium Access Now!
Learn More
Minimize
Learn More
Minimize

GDP targets cut down in most provinces

Reuters reports that many Chinese provinces are cutting their GDP targets for 2020 to align with national targets, which are also expected to soften this year:

About two-thirds of China’s provinces, regions and municipalities have cut their 2020 growth targets from last year, despite easing trade tensions with the United States…

Of China’s provincial-level regions, 22 including Beijing, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Henan, Hainan, and Fujian, set lower growth targets this year compared to last, a similar number to last year.

Beijing, Shanghai, and the southern export hub of Guangdong all dropped their targets from 6-6.5 percent growth to “around 6 percent” in 2020, in line with the expected change to the national target.

The coronavirus may have a noticeable impact on the economy if it is not contained in the short term, according to analyses cited by Bloomberg:

UBS noted that “history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes,” while Nomura said that based on the outbreak 17 years ago, it expects “increased downward pressure on China’s growth, particularly in the services sector.”…

“If the pneumonia couldn’t be contained in the short term, we expect China’s retail sales, tourism, hotel & catering, travel activities likely to be hit, especially in Q1 and early Q2,” UBS said.

A long-term forecast by Capital Economics has predicted that China will continue to close the gap in shares of world GDP with the U.S., but won’t surpass it by 2050. Simon Rabinovitch, a correspondent for The Economist, writes that this is “far outside mainstream consensus, and definitely worth marking.” China’s worsening demographic crisis is one of the major factors cited.

—Lucas Niewenhuis

Share
Lucas Niewenhuis

Lucas Niewenhuis is an associate editor at SupChina who helps curate daily news and produce the company's newsletter, app, and website content. Previously, Lucas researched China-Africa relations at the Social Science Research Council and interned at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. He has studied Chinese language and culture in Shanghai and Beijing, and is a graduate of the University of Michigan.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.